Vietnam: Crop harvested in March and looks to be a very slightly bigger crop than last year, at about 135,000 to 145,000 mt. The carry over ( material from last year ) has been exported already. Farmers are rich and at a point, will not sell if the price does not meet their expectations. Even though the demand has been very weak in the last few weeks, the internal market price has not fallen.

 

India: Crop was harvested in April / May and looks to be around 65,000 mt, slightly bigger than last year. Internal consumption ranges from 40-45,000 mt.

 

Brazil: Crop runs from June to August and looks set to be a reasonable ( slightly bigger crop than last year ). Estimates are around 35,000 mt.

 

Indonesia / Lampong: Crop due July and estimates are at 25 to 30,000 mt.

 

Summary:

The major international traders are bearish, forecasting good crops / stock and hand to mouth buying. They say that the international economic crisis is depressing demand and ultimately prices will follow. Others say that we could be in for a bumpy ride for the rest of 2013 as when buyers do step in, demand will spike and in short bursts push prices up. The conclusion is that the market for pepper will not collapse, nor will it go up substantially this year.

Rusagro benefits from higher grain prices
Canadian 2013/14 production revised upwards

Andrew Barker

An international food broker, with main activity in spices and herbs.